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to take the delayed effect of balance sheet reduction conducted earlier into its consideration of rate cuts. The current phase-out of balanc
上海会所e sheet reduction already has some easing effect, and only after the balance sheet reduction ends in September, can its impact become clearer.
By incorporating that impact into consideration, the Fed can draw up a better rate cut plan that maximizes effects of the policy mix.上海会所
Thirdly, the market may have overestimated how much the Fed will cut the rates. There may be no more than three rate cuts by the end of 2020.
St. Louis Fed President James Bullard – the major advocate of this
round of rate cut – has suggested the use of the modern-day Taylor rule, which fairly well explains th上海会所
e Fed’s interest rate decisions. Even based on this model adopted by dovish Fed officials, we found that the degree of rate cuts may be weaker than m
上海会所arket expectation for quite some time going forward: at most one cut by the end of this year and likely two or three cuts by the end of 2020.
By contrast, before the June FOMC meeting, the market expected a higher-than-85-percent chance of more than one rate cut by the
end of this year as well as an about 60-percent chance of more than three cuts by the end of 2020, according to Bloomberg data.上海会所品茶微信
In conclusion, we think as economic downside pressure gradually emerges, the Fed will have to kick off the rate cut cycle. But the rate cut si上海会所品茶微信
gnal, timing and degree may not measure up to the market expectation. Therefore, two future developments appear possible:
First, investor sentiment can reverse drastically if the Fed’s action fails to meet market expec上海会所品茶微信
tation. Considering the market has fully priced in the unrealistic expectation of rate cuts sinc
e early June, any reversal of expectation can lead to short-term fluctuations of key price signals such as the US Treasury yield cu
rve, the US Dollar Index, and the gold price, which may pose extensive spillover shocks to asset portfolios.
Second, the long-term trend of rate cuts will continue even if the market expectation reverses. In the long
run, the Fed is expected to proceed with rate cuts in a fairly slow and smooth way. This will enlarge the monetary policy room of ot
her major economies and expedite the shift toward an easing global monetary environment, which may in turn lift the sen
timent of global stock markets and ease any currency risk of emerging markets gradually.
Cheng Shi is the managing director, head of research and chief economist of ICBC Interna
tional Holdings Ltd.Qian Zhijun is a senior economist of ICBC International Holdings Ltd.
n our cities, whe上海千花坊品茶微信re more than half the world’s population now lives and 70 percent of GDP is cre
ated, to ensure they are places where we can live, breathe, move safely and be productive,” Stern said.
The G20 nations must lead by example on this imperative, Stern said, and especially the world’s two biggest economies, the US and China.
“China is demonstrating leadership through its significant investments in zero-carbon energy, particularly rene
wable power,” he said. “China’s support for solar power has directly contributed to the astonishingly rapid fall in
he production costs of panel units, making it now the cheapest source of electricity in many parts of the world.”
Stern also noted that China can provide even greater leadership through the Belt and Road Initiative if it e
ncourages the application of robust sustainability tests to investments in new infrastructure in partner countries.
bike protest, Sau上海419论坛品茶微信di authorities arrested Qureiris, then just 13 years old. He was traveling with his fami
ly to Bahrain when he was detained by Saudi border authorities on the King Fahd causeway that connects the two countries.
At the time, he was considered by lawyers and activists to be the youngest known political prisoner in Saudi Arabia.
Now, at the age of 18, Qureiris is facing the death penalty after being
held for almost four years in pre-trial detention, CNN has learned.n April, Saudi Arabia anno
unced it had executed 37 men who, according to rights group Reprieve, were mostly from the kingdom’s Shia minor
ity. The country has one of the highest rates of execution in the world, and has frequently been criticized by rig
hts groups for executing people who were minors at the time of the commission of crimes.
Qureiris was 10 years old when he committed at least one of those alleged crimes in his charge sheet, CNN has learn
ed. He was charged with accompanying his activist brother, Ali Qureris, on a motorcycle ride to a police sta
tion in the eastern Saudi city of Awamiya, where Ali allegedly threw Molotov cocktails at the facility.